Looking Back and Forecasting: 2021 and 2022 in China's Printing Industry

Time：2022-01-11 From：

In 2021, the development trend of China's printing industry can be summarized by a slight increase in revenue, pressure on profits, and slow investment growth.

At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, looking back at 2021 and looking forward to 2022 is the homework that printing managers have to do.

Looking back at 2021, in a year shrouded by the spread of the epidemic, moving forward with heavy burdens is the overall image of printing companies. This year, the development trend of the whole industry can be summed up by a slight increase in revenue, pressure on profits, and slow growth in investment.

We use the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics as of the end of November 2021 to analyze the annual operating situation of the printing industry. The nearly 6,000 printing companies corresponding to this statistical data include medium and large enterprises above the scale of the printing industry (annual main business income of more than 20 million yuan).

From the perspective of revenue, from January to November 2021, enterprises above designated size will realize operating income, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. However, it should be noted that due to the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the annual base is low, and the growth rate of 10.4% does not show the development trajectory of the printing industry relative to normal years. We can use two-year comparisons to make corrections.

The data shows that from January to November 2019, 5,637 regulated enterprises had a revenue of 588.8 billion yuan; from January to November 2021, 5,990 regulated enterprises had a revenue of 658.1 billion yuan. Although the revenue growth rate cannot be calculated directly due to the different number of companies, it can be clearly seen from the comparison of the data that the total revenue of companies above the designated size in 2021 is still stable and growing, but the growth rate is relatively limited.

From the perspective of profits, the total profits of enterprises above designated size from January to November 2021 decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the printing industry clearly showed a trend of revenue growth and profit decline. From a two-year comparison, from January to November 2019, there were 5,637 regulated enterprises with a total profit of 37.9 billion yuan; from January to November 2021, there were 5,990 regulated enterprises with a total profit of 36.1 billion yuan. Clearly, the decline in profits was even worse than -2.5%. Multiple rounds of impacts on paper prices, labor costs, electricity consumption, logistics costs, etc. have put severe pressure on the profits of printing companies.

If we regard revenue and profit as a result indicator to reflect the business situation in the past period; then, fixed asset investment can be regarded as a trend indicator to predict the industry momentum in the future period. After all, there is a close relationship between investment and output. Generally speaking, investment has a leading effect on output for about 3 to 6 months.

Observing the growth rate of fixed asset investment and industrial added value of enterprises in the printing industry, in 2018 and 2019, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has been higher than the growth rate of industrial added value, but starting from 2020, the situation has reversed: in 2020, The growth rate of industrial growth value of enterprises above the designated size is -2.0%, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment is -20.5%. From January to November 2021, the growth rate of industrial added value is 11.9%, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment is 5.5%. The growth rate has been far lower than the growth rate of industrial added value, and investment growth has continued to be slow.

The slow investment growth, on the one hand, indicates that the utilization rate of printing enterprises’ production capacity is not high, the demand is not strong, and they lack the motivation and urgency to expand investment in plant equipment; Contraction action. From the perspective of the relationship between investment and output, low investment growth will affect the speed of industrial development in the next stage, implying that there will still be downward pressure on subsequent industrial growth.

The downward pressure is exactly the development background that the industry needs to face after entering the new year. In early December 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference made a triple pressure judgment on the economic situation in the coming year of "shrinking demand, shocking supply, and weakening expectations". A new round of downward pressure on the economy means that the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, and the recovery process is still facing uncertainty.

In 2022, when the uncertainty is further enhanced, and in the face of the new normal after the new crown epidemic, printing companies need to evolve the ability to overcome uncertainty, win from structural differentiation, and benefit from uncertainty; It is necessary to continuously enhance the strength of resilient growth, operate steadily, and achieve growth through the epidemic period.